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16 Mar 2021
CMD Preview: No magic bullet. More restructuring.

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CMD Preview: No magic bullet. More restructuring.
- Published:
16 Mar 2021 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Lu Louis LL -
Pages:
16 -
Upcoming CMD (Thursday) - Near term focus more on non IFRS operating margins
Nokia is set to hold its Capital Markets Day on 18 March 2021, and has pre released its newest restructuring plans today. The company will take a further EUR600m of charges to lower headcount by 6-11% (5-10k jobs). Those savings will largely be reinvested in RandD. It has been 7+ months since Pekka Lundmark took over as CEO, and as we feared, there is no magic bullet to turning around Nokia''s share losses in mobile networks. There look to be no divestitures, rather more cost cutting. To date, the messaging has been that 2021 will be a challenging year, and a start of a longer term recovery journey. The company''s new 2021 CEO remuneration policy, under short-term incentives have 1) removed revenue as a metric (previously 20% weighting), 2) removed free cash flow as a metric (previously 40% weighting), and 3) increased operating profit weighting (increased from 40% weighting to 70% weighting), making a restructuring plan likely.
A new three year restructuring plan announced today
EUR600-700m restructuring charges are expected to be incurred of which 50% in 2021, 15% in 2022 and 35% in 2023. This is in addition to EUR500m of restructuring charges that are still to come from previously announced restructuring plans. The cost base will fall by an additional EUR600m by end of 2023 which will be offset by higher RandD and salary costs. RandD is expected to be focused on Mobile Networks and Network Infrastructure. 2021 targets remain unchanged. We expect that the current restructuring, and corresponding cashflow impact, will make a dividend resumption unlikely until after 2022 (i.e. two years from now).
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