What happened?
We have received the latest Cognac shipment data from BNIC for March 2025. While we make our usual caution on not reading too much into short-term trends (which can be very volatile), our key takeaways are below.
BNPP Exane View:
Cognac shipment volumes out of the Cognac region grew by +15% in March, a material recovery from prior months (cf. Feb -36%, Jan -24%) leading to Q125 -14% (cf. Q4 +9%, Q3 +2%, Q2 -16%). Looking at trends relative to a pre-pandemic (2019) base, Mar-25 shipments were +7% ahead, leading to Q125 -24% (cf. Feb -41%, Jan -39%, Q4 -14%, Q3 -29%, Q2 -34%).
Global Cognac shipments YoY (HL/%)
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Source: BNIC, BNP Paribas Exane
NAFTA
Cognac shipments to the NAFTA region saw a material recovery in March; growing by +49% YOY in the month (cf. Feb -37%, Jan -16%, Q4 +37%, Q3 +4%, Q2 +20%) leading to Q125 overall +1%. Compared with 2019 levels, NAFTA Mar-25 shipments were +16% ahead (cf. Feb -51%, Jan -37%, Q4 -2% Q3 -48%, Q2 -46%) leading to Q1 -22%. While we caution on reading too much into monthly trends which can be very volatile in the BNIC data, we suspect that NAFTA shipments might have seen some inventory stocking ahead of the expected Liberation Day tariff announcement on 2nd April. For context, we note that Mar-25 saw the largest absolute level of monthly shipments since Sep-22.
NAFTA Cognac shipments YoY (HL/%)
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Source: BNIC, BNP Paribas Exane
Far East
Cognac shipments to the Far East region declined by -18% in the month, leading to Q125 -44% (cf. Feb -59%, Jan -54%, Q4 -31%, Q3 -12%, Q2 -41%). Compared with 2019 levels, Far East Mar-25 shipments were -14% below, leading to Q125 -38% (cf. Feb -47%, Jan -54%, Q4 -44%, Q3 -16%, Q2 -31%).
Far East Cognac shipments YoY (HL/%)
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Source: BNIC, BNP Paribas Exane
Europe
Cognac shipments to the Europe region declined -14% in March which led to Q125 shipments -21% (cf. Feb -16%, Jan -36%, Q4 +4%, Q3 +15%, Q2 -22%). Compared with 2019 levels, Europe shipments declined by...
