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  • 16 Sep 2025

COPPER, AAL, NICKEL CHINA


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 5,034 | BHP Group Ltd (BHP:ASX), 0 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 2,668

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Zeng Qiang QZ

    • 16 pages


 

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COPPER, AAL, NICKEL CHINA


Rio Tinto plc (RIO:LON), 5,034 | BHP Group Ltd (BHP:ASX), 0 | Antofagasta plc (ANTO:LON), 2,668

  • Published: 16 Sep 2025
  • Author: Zeng Qiang QZ
  • Pages: 16
  • BNP Paribas Exane


In a nutshell . ANGLO AMERICAN (+): Finalise adjacency deal with Codelco . COPPER: Chilean copper production flat y/y in July . NICKEL CHINA: SMM Outlook - NPI price expected to rise further amid demand recovery . STEEL EU - ArcelorMittal (+) permanently shuts down Romanian plant Daily Prices as of 15th September / PRICE MOVERS . MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: Base metals trading off their highs in early LME trading ahead of Fed rate decision tonight. LME copper was down -0.4% form its 15-month high. The Yangshan copper cathode premium has been flat this week at USD 55/t, off slightly from its high of USD 59/t the week prior. Iron ore futures in Singapore jumped as much as +1.8%, before paring most of those gains, as China''s daily steel output showed signs of a recovery. Major steelmakers'' crude steel production increased +7.8% in early September vs late August, according to CISA data. Daily average iron ore exports in Brazil reached 1.53Mt in the first ten days of September, below the 1.91Mt per day last month and 1.67Mt per day in September 2024. Gold (USD 3,683/oz) hit another new record as the dollar edged lower for a second session ahead of an expected 25bps Fed rate cut tomorrow. . Macro data this week: Eurozone industrial production (cons. +0.4% m/m) and US retail sales (cons. +0.3% m/m) today; Eurozone CPI (cons. +0.2% m/m) and FOMC meeting tomorrow. . STEEL EU - ArcelorMittal (+) permanently shuts down Romanian plant: After suspending production earlier this month at its EAF-based Hunedoara plant in Transylvania, West-Central Romania, ArcelorMittal (+) has now confirmed its permanent closure. Citing structural issues and cost considerations, Sanjay Samaddar, CEO of long products in Europe for ArcelorMittal Europe said the plant was no longer able to compete effectively and has ended up in a situation where it could no longer absorb further financial losses. In 2024 the Hunedoara plan produced 0.2mt of crude steel and 0.05mt of rebar, well...

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