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24 Feb 2025
Could Eutelsat/SES replace Starlink in Ukraine?

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Could Eutelsat/SES replace Starlink in Ukraine?
SES (SESG:EPA), 0 | SES SA FDR (Class A) (SESG:PAR), 0 | Eutelsat Communications (ETL:EPA), 0 | Eutelsat Communications SA (ETL:PAR), 0
- Published:
24 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Shares in Eutelsat (+10%) and SES (+3%) were up strongly on Monday on talks of the US cutting Ukraine access to Starlink and expectations that Eutelsat/SES could replace Space X service. Christophe Grudler, EU Member of Parliament, in charge of the IRIS2 constellation project and co-chair of the Sky and Space group at the EU Parliament has gone public on X and asked Commissioner Kubilius, in charge of Defence and Space at the EU Commission to consider alternative satellite solutions. In particular, Grudler asked the Commission to explore ''to facilitate or finance the deployment of commercial European satellite services'' and to assess whether ''GOVSATCOM could be mobilized to ensure continued connectivity for Ukraine'' in the case Starlink were to be cut off in Ukraine.
BNPP Exane View:
GOVSATCOM is a programme with significant involvement from SES, in particular SES mPower. Eutelsat OneWeb is a competitor to Starlink and, in our view, the main alternative satellite solutions referred to by the EU MP. Key technical considerations are likely to be signal jamming resistance (we believe more advanced on mPower than OneWeb and less advanced than on Starlink) and terminal form factors (small, rugged, lightweight terminals that can be carried on a person or mounted on a vehicle for OneWeb vs. larger and bigger terminals for SES mPower).
While still a remote option, we believe that an exit of Starlink from Ukraine could provide Eutelsat and SES with a new and attractive revenue stream.