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27 Oct 2022
Credit where it''s due (and 15 qs)

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Credit where it''s due (and 15 qs)
- Published:
27 Oct 2022 -
Author:
Gwynn Andrew AG | Schumacher Anna AS -
Pages:
10 -
A lot of EBIT, a lot of net interest expense
We estimate that Casino''s consolidated net interest expense could exceed EUR1bn this year against EBIT of just under EUR1.2bn. It''s not all bank and bond debt; we estimate group lease interest cost at EUR0.3bn for instance. It shows however the predicament of trying to model net income for the business and the need for the group to fund itself at reasonable cost - something we find challenging to assess. In Q3 however there was good news with EBITDA up in France.
Casino seems to be recovering some of its lost profit in France
Casino''s Q3 LFL growth was as expected so given well documented cost pressure for the industry, it was surprising to hear the group say EBITDA (post lease payments) was up 24% year on year. We''d remind that part of Casino''s challenge today was that COVID-19 was a negative that drove customers away from its core business in Paris and the South of France. A bounce back in earnings is very welcome therefore, especially given the broader cost challenges facing the industry.
Monetising a listed stake unlikely to surprise the group equity
With an announcement that it may sell part of its stake in Assai (Cash and Carry in Brazil) Casino looks set to reach its EUR4.5bn asset disposal by the end of the year. Though there''s potential in Assai as it converts hypermarkets to higher returning cash and carry stores, needs must, with Casino very focused on deleveraging. By monetising a listed stake, the days of Casino finding hidden value in its asset disposal plan seem to be behind us. Even so, if it helps the credit metrics for the group and so lowers financing cost, it is likely a positive for the equity.
Small absolute changes to net income, no change to our EUR10.5 TP
We update our estimates capturing the better earnings from France but also softer than expected development in Assai in Q3. Proportionally the changes look very big but the EURm change is quite limited (EUR19m change to net...