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05 Mar 2024
Data Centres - the key to volume growth?

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Data Centres - the key to volume growth?
Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0
- Published:
05 Mar 2024 -
Author:
Mounsey Jonathan MJ -
Pages:
12 -
We recently roadshowed Benoit Coquart, CEO of Legrand, in the US. Within this note we offer detailed feedback on the key topics discussed during the visit. Key takeaways included...
Data Centres now 15% of sales; AI supports DC market growth at 14%
Data Centres now accounts for 15% of Group sales, mostly in the US. Legrand is mainly in the White space (90%). Legrand has about 10% share globally in respect of the Data Centres product areas it plays. Management sees a market outlook for Data Centre power market growth of 8-10%. Now, after the breakthroughs in AI the Firm believes that the market could grow by 14% and that there should not be any meaningful difference in growth rates between the Grey and White spaces. We note that such a rate of growth could add 300bps to the top line of the Group in 2024, supportive of the Group''s guidance for low-single digits sales growth inclusive of scope.
Indian market outlook supportive too
India is already 5% of Group sales and now the Firm''s 4th largest country by sales. The Indian business grew 20% in 2023. The group''s current sales exposure is: US 35% (North America 40%), France 14%, Italy 9%. Management expects that India should become larger than Italy within the next few years.
Possible Trump tariff risk
China is only 3% of sales, but key to the Group''s supply chain. Legrand''s Chinese COGS exposure is 22% but remains close to 30% of US COGS. Were Trump to impose a 60% tariff (as threatened), while the Firm has good pricing power, Management doesn''t believe that Legrand and its peers could pass all of that through; a new tariff of 20% could be recovered.
Updating estimates; TP unchanged at EUR95 p/s
We update our estimates for recent trading, guidance, and FX. Our TP is unchanged at EUR95 p/s.