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01 Aug 2024
Deleverage miss

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Deleverage miss
- Published:
01 Aug 2024 -
Author:
De Cueto Moreno Gonzalo GD -
Pages:
10 -
REVPAR grew at 11% YoY and Q2 results were in line with consensus...
Q2 revenues were broadly flat YoY despite having c.5% fewer leased rooms YoY thanks to an +11% REVPAR growth YoY driven by better occupancy (+270pbs YoY) and higher average rates per room (+6.8% YoY). The positive performance was clearly driven by Spain with REVPAR growth of +16% YoY, followed by EMEA with +8.6% YoY, while REVPAR in the Caribbean only grew by 3.6% YoY. EBITDA amounted to EUR142m (+1.3%YoY and in line with consensus) while margins reached 27.4% in Q2, remaining stable YoY.
...but deleverage was below expectations
Q2 24 Net Debt stood at EUR2,382m (vs. EUR2,367m expected by consensus), a decline of EUR248m vs. Q1 24 thanks to the Santander sale transaction (EUR235m cash inflow). Excluding this effect and the negative impact of the repricing of long-term liabilities (EUR40m), Net Debt would have declined by c. EUR70m.
FY25 guidance confirmed
Melia expects to achieve a low-double-digit REVPAR increase YoY and a leverage ratio below 2.5x ND/EBITDA (pre-IFRS), and has confirmed the FY24 EBITDA target of at least EUR525m. Additionally, the outlook for the summer season remains optimistic, mainly thanks to the expected positive performance of hotels in Europe, which are capitalizing on the Olympic Games and the Euros, while hotels in Spain should continue benefitting from all-time high tourist arrivals.
We fine-tune our estimates, no change in rating/TP
We slightly increase our FY24-26 EBITDA estimates as we anticipate a better performance from European hotels in Q3. However, as we also revise minority interests upwards, the overall impact on EPS estimates is marginal. Neutral rating reiterated.