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23 Feb 2023
Delivering again

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Delivering again
- Published:
23 Feb 2023 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP | Faure Alexandre AF -
Pages:
8 -
Strong 8% organic growth in Q4
Sopra Steria delivered +8.0% organic growth at cc in Q4 2022, exceeding expectations by 2pp as France and the UK surprised again positively. Momentum in the UK seems particularly strong, and although strong visa processing probably helped again in the quarter, the CEO also mentioned on the call several contract expansions in the country, including back-office services for the NHS. H2 adjusted EBIT was also 5% better, driving FY 22 results above guidance on all metrics.
FY 2023 guidance demonstrates Sopra Steria''s resilient profile
Sopra Steria is guiding for +3-5% organic growth and adjusted EBIT margin 9% for FY 2023, which compares well (relative to the recent historical growth gap) to CAP and Accenture. We believe this reflects 1/ the vertical exposure and business mix of the company (retail and insurance combined represent 8% of 2022 revenue, same as consulting); but also 2/ market share gains with some accounts (Airbus in France, public sector in the UK).
We now model +3.7% LFL growth in 2023, 9.0% adjusted EBIT margin
We raise our estimates to factor in the better-than-expected revenue and adjusted EBIT guidance. We now model +3.7% organic growth at cc and 9.0% adjusted EBIT margin for 2023 (from +2.0%, and 8.8%, respectively). This, combined with a lower effective tax rate as indicated in the presentation for 2023-24 (26% and 24%) lead us to revise our adjusted EPS up by 8-9% over 2023-24E.
Neutral maintained, TP up to EUR176 (from EUR165)
Sopra Steria''s Q4 2022 and FY 2023 guidance have demonstrated the company''s resilience, with the potential end of the SFT JV with German banks the only element slightly troubling the waters. We raise our TP to EUR176 (DCF, 9.6% WACC), but keep our Neutral rating. Although Sopra Steria managed (again) to surprise us positively, from a tactical perspective (and as the August-October 2022 sell-off demonstrated), we would find it too risky to turn more bullish on the stock...