This content is only available within our institutional offering.
12 Mar 2021
Discount to NAV still in ''crisis'' mode
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
Discount to NAV still in ''crisis'' mode
- Published:
12 Mar 2021 -
Author:
Lahmidi Mourad ML -
Pages:
7 -
Cash earnings impacted by lower dividends
GBL posted FY 2020 cash earnings of EUR440m, down 26% affected by a decline in dividends received from its participations (all except SGS had to reduce or halt dividend payments as a result of the Covid-19 crisis). This was partly offset by well-contained holding costs and good yield enhancement activity. Cash earnings are expected to grow again in 2021 as dividend payments in most of the group''s participations should resume.
Exacerbated discount to NAV
Spot NAV at end December stood at EUR127/s up 14% compared to end Q3 thanks to re-rating at virtually all listed participations and re-valuation of non-listed assets (Sienna Capital private equity funds and Web Help going from transaction price to DCF/peer multiples). This points to a 35% discount to NAV compared to 25% for the historical average. While holding companies show a wider discount during market turmoil, they generally tend to return to their historical average once equity markets recover. This has yet to be the case for GBL despite the outperformance of its portfolio (NAV progression in Q4 was 580bps above Eurostoxx 50 performance).
Room for re-rating and capital redeployment - TP lifted to EUR101
We have cut our cash EPS estimates by 8% this year and 9% next year to factor in the impact on dividends received from portfolio rotation. With LTV of 7.3% at the end of 2020, GBL has room to continue deploying capital while management indicated that asset rotation should pick up in 2021. Our Spot NAV in Figure 1 points to EUR135, showing a 36% discount to yesterday''s closing price. We have lifted our valuation from EUR84 to EUR101 which is based on a return of the NAV discount to its historical average of 25%. We maintain our Outperform rating.