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20 Feb 2024
End Game: you asked for it

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End Game: you asked for it
Unilever PLC (ULVR:LON), 4,608 | KRAFT HEINZ CO THE (KHC:NYSE), 0 | Kraft Heinz Company (KHC:NAS), 0
- Published:
20 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Gumport Max MG -
Pages:
29 -
You asked: we revisit Unilever Foods merging with Kraft Heinz
In our recent report (see End Game), we explored the implications of Unilever splitting into two separate Food and HPC entities. While we reiterated our longstanding view that a merger of Unilever Foods and Kraft Heinz makes sense (see Kraft Heinz: the return), we did not revisit our analysis. Having now received many investor requests to do exactly this, revisiting our Unilever Foods - Kraft Heinz merger analysis is the focus of this report.
A merger makes strategic sense for both parties
Merging its Foods interests with Kraft Heinz would help Unilever to operationally exit its Foods business and would completely transform Kraft Heinz.
A merger makes financial sense for both parties
For Unilever (HPC) we see material eventual EPS accretion (rather than dilution: +9.0% in year 4) and a likely meaningful multiple re-rating. As to Kraft Heinz, the transaction would be transformative. We see good returns (year 4 ROIC of 8.6%) and estimated +9.9% EPS accretion (year 4). Furthermore, courtesy of its large minority stake, Unilever shareholders should also benefit in the likely meaningful share price appreciation at Kraft Heinz.
While out-of-the-box, we continue to see merit in the combination
Reflecting upon our analysis, we continue to see a great deal of merit in the merged combination of Unilever Foods and Kraft Heinz. While our Kraft Heinz analyst, Max Gumport, is of a similar view on the merits of a combination, he (likely sensibly) believes that the likelihood of such a combination occurring is remote. This said, stranger things have happened (for example, Kraft Heinz seeking to ''merge'' with Unilever itself or Unilever appointing a left-field CEO who spent a large part of his career at Heinz).