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12 Feb 2024
Enough for the bulls
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Enough for the bulls
- Published:
12 Feb 2024 -
Author:
O''Mahony Dominic DO | Pearce Iain IP -
Pages:
26 -
Generali''s investor day supported the views outlined in our note, Derisky Business, that Generali is a significantly improved operation that offers a lower risk Balance Sheet and a lower volatility proposition for investors. The updated targets, such as the lower solvency range and upgraded cash and capital generation expectations, highlight the benefits of this improvement for investors. This has culminated in Generali conducting a EUR500m share buyback 1 year earlier than expected.
Cash and capital delivery continues and brings buyback expectations forwards
The derisking of Generali''s Balance Sheet, the lower economic sensitivities and the lower capital target range all point positively to the reliability of capital returns. This is supported by the company''s continued performance on capital and cash generation. The company upgraded the targets on these items, albeit this was expected. With some sizeable remittances expected from recently acquired entities, Generali''s holding cash position and remittance flow will look healthy. This healthy position and low cash pay-out ratios clearly brings the prospect of a more recurring share buyback into view.
95% on the table for 2025
Generali did not state a date for achieving its 95% undiscounted combined ratio target. However, commentary suggested to us that it can be achieved by 2025. The company is targeting a below 96% level in 2024. This is despite a 60-70bps increase in the CAT budget. Rate increases are continuing to earn through and new business rates are moving up materially, notably in Italy. This, along with synergies from Liberty Seguros, should support 95% being achievable for FY25.
Interesting growth options
The focus on Generali''s Life business has historically been on risks (guarantees, BTPs). However, the presentation highlighted significant growth opportunities in European Health and Protection markets. High margin, capital light business with attractive returns. Conning opens up new...