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05 May 2025
Erste gives details of Poland acquisition
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Erste gives details of Poland acquisition
- Published:
05 May 2025 -
Author:
Sigee Jeremy JS -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Earlier today Erste Bank announced the agreement to acquire 49% of Santander Bank Polska as expected, and in a press release and presentation (available here) gave details of the transaction and its financials.
BNPP Exane View:
The main surprise and a key positive for investors is that Erste is financing the transaction without equity issuance.
. As expected it is using surplus capital (EUR 3.4bn, 16.22% 1Q CET1 ratio vs 14% target), cancelling the accrued share buyback (0.7bn), and temporarily lowering its target CET1 ratio from 14% to 13.5% (0.7bn).
. In addition, it is reducing the 2025 dividend payout to 10% from the expected 45% (adding EUR 1bn), setting aside a further c40% of 2025 profits (1.2bn), and undertaking some balance sheet optimisation (0.6bn).
. This gives some EUR 7.7bn total financing, covering the purchase price (EUR 7.0bn) and some restructuring charges as well.
The transaction is expected to complete around 4Q25. Erste expects to restore its CET1 ratio from 13.5% end-2025 to 14.25% during 2026, and to return to a normal 40-50% dividend accrual in 2026 as well (paid 2027).
Erste expects 20% EPS accretion from 2026, implying EUR 8.5, versus consensus EUR 7.1, putting the shares on 7.5x.
Erste expects a group RoTE of 19% in 2026 (versus pre-transaction consensus 15%). It expects a return on investment of 11% in year 1 (2026), which it views as ''broadly in line with return on alternative capital deployment options''.
There are some minor perimeter adjustments. Santander Polska will sell its 60% stake in Santander Consumer Bank to the Santander parent group (which will then own 100%), prior to closing. Erste will acquire 50% of Santander''s local asset management unit. There are also cooperation agreements in corporate and investment banking and payments.
There is also a partial protection on CHF mortgage liabilities, a contractual indemnity from Santander Group for the majority of Erste''s share of potential CHF...