What happened?
We have received the latest Nielsen retail off-trade data for the Western European spirits industry, covering the four weeks to 23/03/2025 (''March''). Please let us know if you would like to see our detailed database for more comprehensive details on the performance by distiller, country.... etc.
BNPP Exane View:
Industry perspective
Note: the latest 4-week data to the 23rd March may be negatively impacted from a modest headwind from Easter calendar shift (Easter fell on 31 March 2024 vs 20 April 2025), however, offsetting this we also note that weather sensitive Food and HPC categories appeared to have been strong in the month, particularly in Northern Europe (e.g. Ice Cream +10.7% from +3.1% last month, Mineral Water +7.0% from +4.1%, Sun Care +10.1% from +1.1% and Deodorant +4.6% from -0.5%).
Overall spirits industry sales declined by -5.8% YoY in the 4 weeks to 23rd March, a deceleration from -5.5% in the prior 4 weeks (vs. Q125 -0.9%, Q4 -5.1%), with volumes declining by -6.7% YoY in March, compared with -6.6% in the prior 4-week period (vs. Q125 -2.1%, Q3 -6.3%). Industry price/mix for March was +0.9% (vs. prior 4 weeks +1.2%, Q125 +1.1%, Q4 +1.2%).
Company summary
Diageo off-trade spirits sales declined by -6.8% in the latest 4 weeks, compared to -3.7% declines in the prior 4 weeks leading to Q125 -0.1% (vs. Q4 -6.5%, Q3 -1.7%), with March volumes declining by -9.1%, a sequential deceleration from the prior 4 weeks (-4.5%), but partially offset by improved price/mix (+2.6% in March vs. +0.8% in the prior 4 weeks). Diageo underperformed in the industry in all major tracked European markets in March.
Pernod Ricard sales declined by -8.5% in March, a deceleration from -6.1% declines in the prior 4 weeks, leading to Q125 -0.6% (vs. Q4 -6.2%, Q3 -0.6%). Volumes declined by -11.0% in March, compared to -5.9% in the prior 4 weeks (vs. Q125 -1.2%, Q4 -6.7%, Q3 -0.3%). By region, Pernod Ricard''s weaker volume trends were driven by Germany...
