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02 May 2025
Evenity dynamics worth flagging

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Evenity dynamics worth flagging
What happened?
AMGN reported overnight with Q1 Evenity sales of $442m beating consensus by 2%. Evenity is growing 29% and annualising at $1.8bn (BNPP Exane forecast 2033e peak global sales of $3.3bn; consensus $3.1bn). UCB book 50% of Evenity profits through other operating income (EUR0.6bn in 2024 or 38% of group EBITDA). We see OOI rising to EUR1.2bn in 2029 versus consensus at just EUR800m.
BNPP Exane View
With tariff/drug pricing concerns around UCB abating (Bimzelx being shipped in high volume to US ahead of tariffs and CMO network being activated that will see more US sourcing of product from 2027), we argue investors can return to what we consider to be an unbelievably strong investment case. Key points include:
. Double-digit revenue growth on offer over the next decade from 5 products that are already approved globally with label expansion completed.
. We anticipate UCB will shortly announce a 5-year patent term extension for Bimzelx to 2037, and potentially 2-3 years for Rystiggo/Zilbrysq.
. We remain sanguine ahead of Moonlake Ph III VELA 16-week data for sonelokimab in HS (now expected September), arguing the market can sustain multiple players given current biologics penetration is low, and the strength of the 2-year data recently presented for UCB.
. We see pipeline expectations rising materially post-galvokimig (IL13 x IL17 bispecific) Ph II atopic dermatitis data presentation at EADV (Sep 17-20th), with optionality for donzakimig (IL13 x IL22 - Ph IIa data 2H25). Based on our recent conversations with management galvokimig has the potential to go beyond AD and become a ''pipeline in a product''.
. Our Bimzelx Rx Tracker highlights the strong momentum in US prescriptions as well as European IQVIA sales data. Our analysis suggests HS already represents 20% of Rx. The value of an HS patient is almost double that of a psoriasis patient, reflecting dosing differences. Bimzelx Rx trends are such that we now see UCB raising their expectations...