In a nutshell:
. FREEPORT-MCMORAN (+): 4Q24 first take - 4Q24 beat, 2025/26 guides to weigh on FCF
. SALZGITTER AG (-): Non-binding offer now on the table
. APERAM (+): APAM closes the USAP acquisition
. STEEL CHINA: Production flat, inventories up WoW
. STEEL Prices and Margins Weekly Recap: US HRC flat, EU prices recover, Chinese prices up
Daily Prices as of January 23rd
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PRICE MOVERS
. MACRO/COMMODITY WRAP: Base metals trading mostly stronger on the SHFE this morning; nickel -0.4%, zinc +0.5%, aluminium +0.6%, copper +0.6%. Japanese buyers agreed to a 1Q25 aluminium premium of USD 228/t, +30% q/q and slightly above the recent high of USD 220/t in 4Q21.
Iron ore futures set for a weekly gain with Dalian trading +0.7% this morning despite ongoing concerns over tariffs. Chinese factory is expected to expand for a fourth consecutive month in January, according to economists polled by Reuters. Rio Tinto (+) flagging expected weak 1Q25 iron ore shipments following disruptions to its rail operations from cyclone Sean''s record rainfall. A railcar dumper at its East Intercourse Island (EII) port facility, which handled 45Mt of shipments in 2024, experiences severe flooding, and is expected to be out of operation for 3-4 weeks. There''s been no change to the 2025 iron ore guidance.
Gold (2,773/oz) rebounds to a 3-month peak, boosted by a weaker dollar and uncertainty around Trump''s tariff plans. Chinese gold consumption in 2024 declined by -9.6% according to the China Gold Association with jewellery demand -25% q/q. China''s central bank added more gold to reserves in December for a second straight month, following a six-month pause.
. Macro data this week: US manufacturing PMI (previous 49.4) and US existing homes sales (consensus +0.5% m/m) today.
. STEEL CHINA - Production flat, inventories up WoW: CISA production run rate for the second ten days of January was flat WoW (up +2% YoY). Daily output of ~2.1mt compares with the Q4/Q3 run-rate of ~2.0/2....
