What happened?
We recently caught up with ABInBev ahead of its closed period (it reports Q225 results on 31st July) to get an update on what it has been saying to investors over recent weeks. There is no change to FY25 guidance.
BNPP Exane View:
Overall, we felt the tone was slightly cautious, especially with respect to Brazil (tough comps, poor weather and pricing ahead of competitors leading to a volume impact) and Mexico (also facing tough comps and a sequentially softer consumer). However, elsewhere the company commented on share gains in Europe following retailer de-listings of a key competitor, as well as easier comps in Peru/Ecuador and some Easter phasing benefit in South Africa (and Mexico). Reflecting on consensus estimates (Bloomberg Q225 LFL sales +4.7% and LFL EBITDA +7.5%), we would not be surprised to see modest negative revisions, led by Middle and South Americas.
See below for further colour:
Mexico: The company noted that it is facing a relatively tough comp in Mexico in the quarter which last year benefitted from good weather and the phasing of government benefits, although ABInBev did note that Q225 will benefit from the Easter shipment phasing. On the consumer, the company commented that caution from the Mexican consumer has continued which has an impact on demand.
Brazil: ABInBev noted that it will be cycling a tough comp. from Q224 (+4%) and also commented on soft weather trends throughout May and June leading to a slightly declining industry in the quarter. Additionally, the company noted that Ambev implemented a price increase at the start of the quarter which the other main competitor had seemingly not yet followed.
Asia Pacific: In China, ABI faces a sequentially easier comp. (Q224 LFL sales -15.2% vs. Q1 -2.7%) but underlying trends remain tough. Moreover, Bud APAC noted at the Q125 results that sales-to-wholesalers (STWs) are expected to continue to lag sales-to-retailers (STRs) in Q225, only starting to converge in...
