What happened?
We recently caught up with Remy Cointreau to get an update on what it has been saying to investors over recent weeks (Remy Cointreau reports FY25 sales on 30 April). Remy Cointreau''s outlook remains unchanged.
BNPP Exane View:
Overall, we felt the tone of the call was very modestly positive, in particular with respect the development of the VSOP Cognac depletions in the US. We would not expect any shift in the consensus FY25e organic growth estimate (BBG cons. -17.7%). Points of colour below:
Shape of Q4: as previously shared with the Q3 sales update, Remy Cointreau expects to see strong +DD organic growth in the Americas in Q4 (mainly driven by the LandS division but also Cognac) primarily as a consequence of soft comps. In APAC, organic sales is expected to see a sharp DD decline due to very high comps (massive sell-in in Q424) and calendar timing effects. In EMEA, Q4 will likely see a sequential deterioration in sell-in trend as Remy Cointreau aims to optimise its trade inventories as it enters FY26. EMEA sell-out in Jan/Feb was positive overall.
US depletions: our sense was that Remy Cointreau''s US Cognac value depletion trend has continued to see a slight sequential improvement driven primarily by VSOP (but with 1738 also accelerating). Remy Cointreau believes the VSOP plan is beginning to bear fruit, particularly in Illinois where adjustments have been made on pricing and marketing. Remy Cointreau is not yet seeing the same sequential improvement in Remy Martin''s US sell-out trends.
US tariff impact on Q4: Remy Cointreau does not believe its US business benefitted from a pull forward of sell-in demand in fiscal Q425 (cal. Q125) related to anticipated implementation of US tariffs.
China: Remy Cointreau had a good Chinese New Year performance (our sense was that CNY depletions were slightly positive) particularly relative to peers, in the context of market conditions which remain tough. At present, there has been no resolution...
