What happened? We recently caught up with Pernod Ricard ahead of its closed period (it reports H125 results on 13th February) to get an update on what it has been saying to investors over recent weeks. BNPP Exane View: Overall, we felt that the tone was generally cautious, highlighting that while YoY trends have seen sequential improvement vs. Q1 across most major markets (US, China, India, Europe) the magnitude of improvement is slightly less than is assumed in consensus expectations. As a result we would expect consensus H125 LFL sales/EBIT to move down marginally (VA cons is currently -2.6%/-2.7% respectively), with H1 LFL EBIT declining by more than LFL sales in H1. We note that Pernod Ricard reiterated its FY25 guidance. Additional colour below: Americas: In the US, while Q2 sales are now more closely aligned with sell-out trends than in previous quarters, Q2 has seen no underlying improvement in trends versus Q1. Elsewhere, Brazil is likely to be sequentially softer in Q2 as Q1 benefitted from some phasing while weak underlying trends in Mexico have continued vs the prior quarter. Asia/RoW: In China, the underlying weak consumer sentiment is unchanged while in India, while Q2 will likely benefit from some phasing impact from Q1, overall growth for the quarter is unlikely to be materially above its mid-term trend. Europe: Some European markets that were impacted by poor weather in Q1 (UK, France) have seen an improvement in YoY trends, while consumer demand in markets like Germany and Spain remains soft. EBIT phasing: While Pernod continue to expect a containment of organic EBIT margin in FY25, with several of the cost controls/measures set to be more of a benefit in H2 than in H1, we expect that H1 LFL EBIT will decline by more than LFL sales.