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16 Oct 2023
FQ3''23 preview: Still waiting for the stabilization

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FQ3''23 preview: Still waiting for the stabilization
- Published:
16 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Lu Louis LL -
Pages:
12 -
Mobile and Network Infrastructure continues to slow. FX headwinds to accelerate.
Nokia reports Q3 results on Thursday 19 October. Following Ericsson''s ''warning'' on 11 October (link) and Dell''Oro RAN market downgrade (link) and Spirent warning (link), we remain cautious on end markets. Going into Q3, for Mobile Networks we assume QoQ revenue declines of -2.5% which is in-line to Ericsson''s Q3 revenue QoQ revenue decline. We also have Mobile Networks gross margins staying in the ~33% range (while consensus expects a +40bps QoQ improvement) with adj. EBIT margins stepping down to ~7%. For Network Infrastructure, we expect Q3 revenue declines of -7% CCY. We also expect margins to continue stepping down given slowing growth with gross margins of 36% and adj. EBIT margins of ~11.5%. Excluding Technologies, we are ~2% below consensus on revenues and ~6% below on adj EBIT for Q3. FX headwinds are also expected to accelerate to -5% in Q3.
Consensus embedding a Technologies step-up in Q3
We are wary of consensus expectations for Technologies revenues/adj. EBIT to step up from ~EUR250m/~EUR155m in Q2 (excluding EUR80m catch-up payments) to ~EUR270m/~EUR180m in Q3 given the absence of Oppo and Vivo resolution. We continue to model Technologies Q3 revenues/adj. EBIT of EUR250m/EUR155m which is in-line with Q2 levels.
Similar dynamics to Ericsson; -15% below consensus Q4 ad. EBIT (excluding Technologies)
Similar to Ericsson, consensus is embedding a Q4 rebound in Mobile Networks and Network Infrastructure. Consensus has Q4 Mobile Networks/Network Infrastructure adj. EBIT margins bouncing back up to ~9.5%/~13.5% which looks too optimistic to us. Excluding Technologies, we are ~15% below consensus Q4 adj. EBIT.
Despite weak near-term dynamics, we continue to prefer Nokia (+) over Ericsson (=).
Despite slowing market growth, we continue to prefer Nokia (+) over Ericsson (=) given its diversification, capital allocation and long-term margin optionality. We continue...