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10 Jan 2025
France is France. But value is value.

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France is France. But value is value.
- Published:
10 Jan 2025 -
Author:
Joynson Robert RJ | Maglione Dario DM | Watkins Hugo HW -
Pages:
96 -
French political turbulence is a fact of life, with attractive entry points equally reliable.
While few things in life are certain, some things can be relied on. French political turbulence every few years - check. Investor appetite for anything French slumps - check. Vinci/Eiffage sell off - check. Valuations become unreasonably low (though nobody cares) - check. We have witnessed this cycle multiple times, with each providing an attractive entry point into the Transport sector''s most resilient stocks. We believe this time will prove no different, indeed our deep dive analysis into Vinci/Eiffage''s Contracting operations further bolsters our confidence. We upgrade Vinci to Outperform from Neutral, while reiterating our Outperform rating on Eiffage.
Life too short for a Contracting deep dive? Good news - we''ve done the work for you.
Part of the problem with Vinci/Eiffage is their diversification. While objectively valuing a French Tollroad is easy, many investors do not have the time or inclination to carry out a detailed analysis of Contracting operations, preferring to slap on a low multiple and move on. The good news is we''ve done the work for you (and even better, the conclusions are simple). Valuing Energies operations in-line with SPIE seems reasonable, despite the company''s more upbeat valuation. We believe Vinci''s Construction operations should be valued at a discount to Veidekke, and Eiffage Construction at a discount to Vinci. Street EBIT expectations seem fine. Yet, if one combines these estimates with reasonable multiples, implied valuations for Concession assets make little sense, in our view.
Even if the French Tollroads see zero traffic growth, valuations look unreasonably cheap.
We assume zero traffic growth for the French Tollroads. Not just for 2025, but until the concessions end. Yet, even in this cautious scenario, we expect FCF generation to remain highly attractive. While many investors consider the short-duration cash...