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27 Feb 2025
FY 24 results call feedback
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FY 24 results call feedback
- Published:
27 Feb 2025 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Sopra Steria''s FY 2024 results call just ended. Many questions were focused on the expected growth cadence for the year, and the UK VI contract loss, a negative surprise from the release. In more details:
Growth cadence for the year: CEO expects Q1 to be the lowest point at -5%/6% due to 1/ high comps in Aero in France, 2/ UK hit by the loss of the UK VI contract, and 3/ slow start to the year in the public sector in France, Germany, Benelux. Q2 is expected to improve as 1/ the UK will become less of a drag as the NSandI contract starts ramping-up in April to partially offset the UK VI contract loss, and 2/ better trends in the public sector now that the public budget has been voted in France. Management acknowledges low visibility on H2 growth, but the pipeline is strong, and H2 growth will depend on decision making from customers on pipeline conversion at the end of H1. The low-end of the -2.5%/+0.5% LFL growth guidance for the year assumes no improvement in H2 HoH, while the high-end assumes a relatively strong rebound.
UK VI contract loss: the disappointing growth in the UK in Q4 (c. -9% LFL) was explained 70%-30% by high SSCL comps, and the loss of the visa contract (UK VI); which expired and was won by a competitor at the beginning of Q4. The renewal included a different scope in terms of nature of services offered and geographies, which explains the loss for SOP.
SSCL contract are up for renewal at the end of the year; management highlighted that part of the related services have already been renewed (the Metropolitan police, for instance), and mentioned expectations of ''good news'' on the topic in the weeks and months to come.
Gen AI: CEO does not see a ''tidal wave in demand'' for GenAI. So far, SOP is not seeing a positive impact on pricing, The ramp-up is perceived by management as relatively slow, and CEO sees GenAI ramp-up more as a 3-5 year trend.
BNPP Exane View:
The confirmation of the loss of the UK VI contract is bad...