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07 Feb 2023
FY22 results and 15 questions for management
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FY22 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
07 Feb 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of FY22 results
Operationally, results were broadly in-line. Q4 LFL sales growth at +10.0% was in-line with company consensus (with rev/hl coming 110bp ahead helping to offset weaker than expected volumes). Scanning the Q4 regional delivery, there were no major standouts. While FY LFL EBIT growth at +12.2% was also in-line with company consensus (+12.0%), reported EBIT at DKK11,470m was c.1% below. Adj. cont. basic EPS at DKK55.7 was c.8% ahead of company consensus (primarily due to a lower-than-expected tax charge).
News
We highlight that the minority partner of Carlsberg South Asia Pte Ltd has exercised its put option and this has been valued at an average of USD744m (the average of two valuers). This put exercise is why the Supervisory Board has not instigated a share buyback in Q1.
Earnings
We revise our FY23e/FY24e/FY25e EPS by -2%, -5% and -5%. The greater variance in FY24e and FY25e reflects additional interest costs associated with assumed purchase of the put.
Investment thesis
While the valuation is undemanding, an uncertain European outlook (Carlsberg has the highest exposure of the three European brewers) and potential for near-term retirement of the highly regarded CEO keep us Neutral.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our TP moves to DKK980 (from DKK1020).
15 questions for management
Does CEO, Cees ''t Hart, intend to present FY23 results?