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22 Feb 2023
FY22 results and 15 questions for management

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FY22 results and 15 questions for management
Danone (BN:EPA), 0 | Danone SA (BN:PAR), 0
- Published:
22 Feb 2023 -
Author:
Omanadze Mikheil MO | Stent Jeff JS -
Pages:
12 -
Summary of Q4/FY22 results
Q4 LFL sales growth at +7.0% was 80bp ahead of co. consensus, primarily driven by volume. Turning towards the FY22 profits delivery, the EBIT margin at 12.2% (-154bp YOY) was 10bp ahead of co. consensus and this led to EBIT at EUR3,377m coming 0.8% ahead of co. consensus. In part as a consequence of better-than-expected associate income, FD EPS at EUR3.43 was 2.4% ahead of co. consensus. DPS at EUR2.0 was modestly below VA consensus (EUR2.01).
News
We highlight that around 50% of the Q4 volume decline in EDP Europe was out of choice (linked to Danone''s portfolio choices and temporary delivery suspensions).
Earnings
We leave our FY23e/FY24e/FY25e EPS broadly unchanged.
Investment Thesis
While Danone is relatively inexpensive, we have concerns on the sustainability of Chinese infant formula profits which we estimate account for c.1/4th of group profits.
Rating / target price
We maintain our Underperform rating and EUR47.50 target price.
15 questions for management
What proportion of your FY22 sales and EBIT were generated in Russia?