This content is only available within our institutional offering.
31 Aug 2023
FY23 results and 15 questions for management
Sign in
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
This content is only available to commercial clients. Sign in if you have access or contact support@research-tree.com to set up a commercial account
FY23 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
31 Aug 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
13 -
Summary of FY23 results
Q4 LFL sales growth at +19% was somewhat ahead of VA consensus (+15.8%), as was FY LFL EBIT (+11% vs. VA cons at +10.2%). The FY LFL EBIT beat was more than offset by FX (EUR(70)m vs. VA cons at +EUR60m) which led to EBIT at EUR3,348m coming -3.7% below VA consensus. The latter was the principal driver behind EPS at EUR9.11 coming -2.9% below VA consensus. The FY dividend at EUR4.70 was in-line with VA consensus.
News
We highlight that Pernod Ricard expects a slow start to the year with sales declining in both the US and China in Q1, in part due to a high basis of comparison.
Earnings
We revise our FY24e/FY25e/FY26e EPS by -4% to -6% (primarily due to FX).
Investment thesis
While near-term trends will likely be sluggish, we believe that Pernod Ricard is a key Staples growth play and it will slowly garner interest in what will gradually become a lower growth operating environment for Staples.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our TP moves from EUR235 to EUR213 (primarily due to a reduction in target multiple).
15 questions for management
It is in no-one''s interest for FX to be a big talking point. Even if it is a moving feast, why not give more FX guidance?