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29 Feb 2024
FY23 results and 15 questions for management

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FY23 results and 15 questions for management
- Published:
29 Feb 2024 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
17 -
Summary of Q4/FY23 results
ABInBev Q4 LFL sales grew +6.2% (co. cons. +6.1%) and LFL EBITDA also grew +6.2% (co. cons. +5.3%), both modestly ahead of expectations. Q4 LFL volumes declined -2.6% (co. cons. -2.0%) with the miss relative to expectation primarily driven by North America, where shipment phasing in the US was unfavourable in the quarter. Q4 USD EBITDA was c.-6% below co. cons. primarily driven by South America which was impacted by devaluation of the Argentinian peso in December. Q4 underlying EPS at USD0.82 was a c.+9% beat (driven by favourable tax). FY DPS was EUR0.82.
News
We highlight that ABInBev''s FY24 group effective tax rate guidance reflects the full impact of legislation passed as of today (including in Brazil).
Earnings
We revise our FY24e / FY25e / FY26e EPS estimates by c.-4% / c.-3% / c.-2%, reflecting a combination of revised operational assumptions, FX, finance costs and tax.
Investment thesis
There is a lot to like about the cash return story at ABInBev but we see more re-rating potential at Heineken and Carlsberg.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Neutral rating. Our target price moves from EUR63 to EUR62.
15 questions for management
Does Altria owning a c.10% stake in ABInBev factor into your thinking when considering how to implement your dynamic capital allocation policy?