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13 Feb 2025
FY24: small earnings beat and return to dividend growth
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FY24: small earnings beat and return to dividend growth
What happened?
Gecina has reported FY24 results. Key figures are; RNI/sh +6.7% to EUR6.42, DPS +2.8% to EUR5.45 and EPRA NTA/sh -0.5% to EUR142.8, all broadly in line with cons. Earnings guidance for FY25 is EUR6.60-6.70, which implies growth of 2.8-4.4%. We currently forecast EUR6.63 vs cons. of EUR6.71.
BNPP Exane View:
Good set of figures with earnings marginally ahead of guidance, a return to dividend growth after 5-years and revised earnings guidance that just about meets FY25 consensus. Office capital values continue to polarise, with valuation uplifts accelerating in H2 for Paris City but declining further for Western Crescent and La Defense. Occupancy ticked down marginally in Q4 and focus will now turn to leasing risk in 2025, where the statement references continued flight to centrality of tenant demand, suggesting risk to non-Paris City expiries. We also note launch of the material Mirabeau development project in Paris City, that is scheduled for delivery in Q3-27 with a cost of EUR445m, taking total outstanding capex to EUR650m. We expect management to comment on capital allocation/funding sources on the call tomorrow but note the strong liquidity position. The stock trades at a 6.9% FFO yield and 32% discount to NTA, and we think the market reaction to the print will be positive.
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OCCUPANCY: Portfolio occupancy -50bps YoY and -30bps in Q4 to 93.4%. Office portfolio occupancy -30bps in Q4 to 93.4% and residential portfolio (excl. student) -120bps in Q4 to 94.0%. Within the office portfolio, occupancy is split: 94.7% Paris City, 89.0% Western Crescent and 99.6% La Defense.
GROSS RENTAL INCOME: GRI +4.1% LfL to EUR694.5m, with office +6.6% and residential +4.7%. GRI uplifts were driven by +5.2% indexation and +0.8% index beating LfL rental growth.
EBITDA +5.7% to EUR565.7m, with margin +1.2% to 81.5%.
RNI/sh and DPS: RNI/sh +6.7% to EUR6.42 and DPS +2.8% to EUR5.45. The dividend will be paid in cash with an interim dividend of EUR2.70 on March 5 and EUR2.75...