BNPP Exane view
The focus of the call was on the likely development of FY26. In the context of lots of potential swing factors, many different scenarios were discussed but we would draw out the following points: 1) Remy Cointreau is not concerned by consensus expectation for +MSD LFL sales growth in FY26, under-pinning this it expects double-digit US LFL sales growth driven by re-stocking on very low comps.; 2) organic COP margin would be slightly negative if there is only a tariff in US and not China; 3) assumption of an EUR/USD spot rate of 1.15 would lead to a hedge rate of 1.12 leading to an -EUR10-15m impact on FY26 COP. Overall, while we can rationalise the positive share price reaction in-light of the sequential improvement in the US Cognac depletion trend, we struggle to view the update today as meaningfully positive.
Highlights: QandA
. China depletions: from mid-Feb the environment turned down into a more harsh one. This was more linked to a lack of confidence from wholesalers and cautious behaviour indirectly related to the trade war and not a shift in consumers. Looking at the channels, see strength in e-commerce (+10% depletions in Q4). It was more related to a freezing of purchases by wholesalers and even more of a wait and see attitude.
. FY26: will be more precise on the FY26 outlook in June (with FY25 results). For top-line, so far Visible Alpha has +4.6%, it is early but can say this is consistent with mid-term guidance. Nothing more to add at this stage, the consensus is not scaring the company, seems like a good approximation. There are many moving parts for next year: in China the macro impact on confidence is important; the US newsflow in a volatile environment. For bottom-line, in normal circumstance do not expect improvement in COP margin in FY26 because could not fully offset tariff impact from China and US in 1 year. Will provide expected gross / net impact in June but offset will also include growth in sales (driven by...
