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18 Dec 2024
Getting ready for the guidance

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Getting ready for the guidance
Legrand (LR:EPA), 0 | Legrand SA (LR:PAR), 0
- Published:
18 Dec 2024 -
Author:
Mounsey Jonathan MJ -
Pages:
11 -
FY24e numbers to be reported on 13th February
We update estimates to better reflect our latest thoughts on MandA and the impact of recent FX movements. Seasoned followers of Legrand will be well aware that the Company has a unique methodology in respect of its initial reporting of acquisitions. It can take several quarters before acquired assets are reflected in the Group''s scope effect and all trading from deal completion to initial recognition is then reported in the first quarter of consolidation. Because of this, we expect a significant catch up in the reported scope effect for the final quarter. We model scope to add 7% in Q4 and 2% to FY24e Group sales. In addition to this, there has been a recent strengthening of the US dollar. We move to model a milder full year FX headwind (-0.6%) than Legrand was modelling when it reported Q3 numbers back in early November (-1.0%).
FY25e initial guidance - what we expect
Alongside FY24e results, Legrand management will issue its initial FY25e guidance. The Company''s guidance usually captures a wide range of scenarios, from recession at the low end, to a market recovery at the upper end. Consensus currently models c. 4.0% organic sales growth in FY25e. We see no upside to this figure. We would expect the low end of FY25e organic sales growth guidance to be set at 0% to 1% and the high end to be set at 3% to 4%. If we are right in our prediction, then there is a risk that Consensus moves a little lower to the mid-point of the guided range, perhaps 2.5% rather than the current 4%. The only scenario where we see the Company guiding to a faster rate of organic sales growth is if management were to pre-emptively forecast higher price rises to recoup yet to be imposed tariffs - we doubt it would move to do so, without first knowing more about President Elect Donald Trump''s plans. Consensus models a FY25e EBIT margin of 20.5%. At its September CMD the Firm reaffirmed its target to deliver 20% pa; we sit 20bps...