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17 Feb 2023
Guidance reaffirmed

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Guidance reaffirmed
- Published:
17 Feb 2023 -
Author:
Kassab Sami SK | Watson Scott SW -
Pages:
10 -
Eutelsat H1 23 results lead to confirmation of guidance
Eutelsat reported H1 revenues in line with consensus. Government Services was weaker due to the poor renewal campaigns of 2022. But Mobility came in much stronger, driven by growth in Maritime. Management has confirmed all elements of its outlook for FY23 and continues to expect a return to growth in FY24. We note that it guided for worsening top-line trends in Video, Government and Fixed Broadband in H2 23, all in the framework of the reaffirmed guidance.
IRIS2 project on track
The EU Parliament recently approved funding for the IRIS2 constellation of European satellites, a project aimed at reinforcing the competitive appeal of European space assets in the context of the new ongoing space race. Eutelsat expects bid tenders to be issued in March. It is currently in discussion with players in the space industry to form a bidding consortium. Our central scenario is for SES and Eutelsat to jointly work on and benefit from this project.
OneWeb GEN2 on track
Management expects OneWeb GEN1 to be fully operational (vs. 85% now) in January 2024. It reported good growth in OneWeb''s order backlog (from USD0.6bn in October to USD0.8bn at the end of December). The EUR4bn capex envelope for GEN2 has been confirmed with initial spending in FY24 and full ramp-up in later years for an entry into service in 2027 or 2028. Management continues to expect closing of the OneWeb merger in calendar Q2 or Q3 2023.
Forecasts largely unchanged
Our revenues forecasts are largely unchanged. We have trimmed EBITDA margins to reflect investments in Eutelsat''s commercial offering in Connectivity (i.e., Eutelsat Advance). EPS is revised down to reflect the impact of the scrip dividend. FCF guidance is maintained.