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05 Nov 2024
Guidance upgrade on divestment & strong commercial performance

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Guidance upgrade on divestment & strong commercial performance
What happened?
UCB has announced completion of the sale of rights to two established brands, Atarax and Nootropil for Europe and selected other countries with income to be booked as other revenue . Given this transaction, along with strong performance of the key growth drivers Bimzelx and Rystiggo, UCB is updating its 2024 financial guidance, with revenue expected to reach close to EUR6 billion, up from the prior guidance of the ''upper end of the range of EUR5.5 - 5.7 billion''. EBITDA margin is expected to reach the upper part of the confirmed range of 23.0-24.5%, with Core EPS now projected between EUR4.25-4.65 (vs EUR3.70-4.40).
BNPP Exane View:
UCB''s upgraded guidance implies 4%, 7% and 9% upside to current consensus forecasts. Although the contribution to this from the completed divestment is not disclosed, we believe this likely accounts for around 70% of the upside to revenues (assuming a payment of 2.2x sales for Atarax/Nootropil which had sales of EUR64m), with the remainder reflecting strong performance of Bimzelx and Rystiggo. The one time payment arguably underpins most of the implied upside to earnings. However, we believe UCB will have utilised opportunity for reinvestment behind the launches within this. UCB continues to a top mid cap pick and we optimistic that the company can continue to generate value for shareholders through commercial excellence and delivery on its pipeline despite recent very strong share price performance.