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25 Jul 2025
H1 25 results first-take: adjusted EBIT 2% ahead but weak FCF in H1; return to ‘slight organic growth’ seen in Q4

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H1 25 results first-take: adjusted EBIT 2% ahead but weak FCF in H1; return to ‘slight organic growth’ seen in Q4
- Published:
25 Jul 2025 -
Author:
Poutrieux Thomas TP -
Pages:
9 -
BNPP Exane View:
Sopra Steria reported satisfactory set of results for H1 2025: Q2 organic decline moderated vs. Q1 to -2.7% (cons: -2.5%), and adjusted EBIT margin was a touch better than expected, leading to a 2% beat vs. consensus on that line. FCF was weak, but this had been flagged by the company, and we expect management to deliver a reassuring message on H2 FCF.
In line with the recent messages from other global IT services companies, Sopra Steria does not see yet a significant upturn in the market, but still notes a ''stronger sales performance in June in a number of European countries'', and expects to return to slight organic growth in Q4 this year. While we would have hoped for a commitment to a return to organic growth as of Q3, the comment does not suggest changes to cons. which currently expects -0.1% LFL decline and +1.3% LFL growth in Q3 and Q4 respectively.
We thus think cons. EPS should remain broadly unchanged on the back of the release.
What happened?
Sopra Steria reported H1 2025 results.
Q2 sales were down -2.5% YOY on a reported basis, and down -2.7% LFL, confirming the moderation of the decline from -4.9% LFL in Q1, roughly in line with consensus at -2.5%.
. The UK was better in Q2 with -4.8% organic decline, but the company now expects a return to positive organic growth ''for the end of H2'', which may suggest slight downgrade to consensus which currently expects +6-7% LFL growth in Q4 in the business unit
. France improved too QoQ, though less than we expected with -2.4% LFL decline as most verticals remain in negative growth territory
. Europe saw only a very limited improvement with -3.0% LFL decline in the quarter from -3.3% in Q1, suggesting Germany and the Benelux remain tough
EBITA margin came in at EUR261m in H1, 2% ahead of cons with 9.2% margin (cons. 9.0%)
FCF was weak at -EUR145.9m, while we were expecting c. -EUR120m. Working capital weighed massively on FCF, which is what the company had been flagging to the...