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06 Aug 2025
H1 conference call feedback: Hinting at upgrades

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H1 conference call feedback: Hinting at upgrades
- Published:
06 Aug 2025 -
Author:
Pearce Iain IP -
Pages:
8 -
What happened?
Generali management hosted a conference call following its H1 2025 results, hinting at various areas of upside to current guidance. It was clearly a confident call, with management sounding optimistic on the current operating performance, with the potential that it can continue to improve further from current levels. We summarise the key takeaways below:
BNPP Exane View:
Happy to hint at a combined ratio comfortably ahead of target: Generali''s current year attritional loss ratio was 64.5% in HY 2025. Normalising for Nat Cat and PYD and assuming a stable expense ratio, the undiscounted combined ratio would be ahead of the 94.5% target for the plan. Management stated that the quality of the earnings in H1 was good and there were not really any positive one-off or frequency benefits to flag. Rate momentum will continue to earn through, even if it is anticipated that pricing momentum will moderate. There are also internal measures that should continue to contribute to combined ratio improvement in terms of risk selection. As such, it is difficult to see why the company should not be comfortably ahead of the plan guidance (BNPPE: 93.9% for 2027E).
Pruning work has worked: There has been sizeable improvements in the combined ratios in certain geographies yoy. These include Switzerland, France and Germany. The level of improvement appears to stretch beyond the benefit of rate improvement. The clear message from management in this regard was that ''pruning is working'' with the actions taken with respect to the portfolio in recent years beginning to show material benefits.
Life - situation normalised: The Life business appears to have settled after a period of volatility. Management indicated that lapse experience in Italy and France had normalised and flows were expected to remain positive. Experience variance should be more minimal going forwards, given the updated assumptions and it does not anticipate material headwinds from upcoming...