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  • 01 Jul 2025

H1 Pre Close Call Feedback


Renault (RNO:EPA), 0 | Renault SA (RNO:PAR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Pearson Stuart SP

    • 9 pages


 

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H1 Pre Close Call Feedback


Renault (RNO:EPA), 0 | Renault SA (RNO:PAR), 0

  • Published: 01 Jul 2025
  • Author: Pearson Stuart SP
  • Pages: 9
  • BNP Paribas Exane


What happened? Renault just hosted their H1 group pre-close call. There were no changes to FY25 guidance; the company will report full results on 31st July. Key takeaways include: . RNO will change the accounting methodology regarding Nissan. Nissan will now be recognised as a financial asset, measured at fair value through equity as opposed to being measured as an equity associate. Importantly, we believe this could indicate an increased likelihood of a further reduction in the stake in the short/medium term, as this change means a reduction would no longer have a negative PandL impact. In our view the change also indicates that the Futurama strategy is likely to focus on EPS growth (whereby the previous Nissan treatment increased EPS volatility and this will no longer be the case). . Management Succession: Luca De Meo''s resignation will be finalised on July 15th. A swift and structured recruitment process is underway, considering both internal and external candidates. . FY25 Outlook: Renault left its FY25 guidance unchanged: Group operating margin =7% (BBG cons: 6.9%); Auto FCF =EUR 2bn (BBG cons: EUR 2.1bn). Renault continues to expect H2 margins above H1 due to product ramp ups, reduced Horse accounting impact and the CAFE reprieve affording more flexibility. FCF will also improve sequentially in H2. Full Feedback: . FY25 outlook: Renault left its FY25 guidance unchanged: Group operating margin =7% (BBG cons: 6.9%); Auto FCF =EUR 2bn (BBG cons: EUR 2.1bn). H2 margins are expected to be stronger than H1: in part due to ramping up of product; Horse accounting effects should reduce from H2 and CAFE reprieve providing more flexibility and supporting profitability. FCF will also improve sequentially in H2. . Demand: Renault 5 is now available in all countries. UK was the final launch location and order books are strong. Renault 4 will arrive at dealers in the coming months. Orders for LCVs started to ramp up in May after difficulties at the...

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