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27 Oct 2023
H124 sales and 15 questions for management
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H124 sales and 15 questions for management
- Published:
27 Oct 2023 -
Author:
Stent Jeff JS | Cross Gen GC | Ford Matthew MF -
Pages:
15 -
Summary of Q2/ H124 sales
With its Q2 sales update Remy Cointreau materially cut its FY24 outlook and now expects group LFL sales to decline between -15-20% (previously stable) and aims for a ''contained organic decrease'' in its COP (current operating profit) margin (previously stable). As to the drivers of the profit warning, Remy Cointreau commented on the guidance reduction being: 60% driven by the US (tougher market conditions and a fiercely promotional environment in US Cognac); 25% by China (slower than anticipated recovery post-Covid) and 15% by RoW (more moderate annual growth is expected in EMEA in a persistently inflationary context). As to Q2 itself, LFL sales at a group level declined -10.8% (co. cons. -8.7%) with the miss driven by the Cognac division.
News
We highlight that Remy Martin US Cognac volume depletions declined -37.4% in Q2 (cf. -5.5% in Q1) which implies volumes -34.9% below pre-pandemic (cf. +8.1% ahead in Q1).
Earnings
We revise down our FY24e / FY25e / FY26e EPS estimates by -20% / -13% / -13%.
Investment thesis
While restoration of market confidence in Remy Cointreau''s US Cognac business will take time, we believe it will come and with it a strong rebound in the shares.
Rating and target price
We maintain our Outperform rating. Our target price moves from EUR173 to EUR150.
15 questions for management
What level of value depletion decline do you assume for your US Cognac business at the top and bottom ends of your revised group FY24 LFL sales guidance?