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14 Aug 2025
H125 conf call: slightly better vols in Q3
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H125 conf call: slightly better vols in Q3
- Published:
14 Aug 2025 -
Author:
Cross Gen GC -
Pages:
10 -
BNPP Exane view
The main points of note from the conference call were that Carlsberg expects a slightly better volume performance in Q3 vs. Q2 (-1.1% LFL) and that the Kazakhstan Pepsi bottling business is now not expected to make a significant profit contribution in FY26. We suspect both consensus Q3 organic vols (+1.3% per BBG cons) and FY26 organic EBIT (+8.2% per co. cons.) will be subject to downward revision. With respect the latter, we note that we include a DKK225m (c.1.5% of group) contribution from Kazakhstan Pepsi bottling in our FY26 EBIT. Overall, given the market''s focus on vols this earnings season and the likely modest downgrades to near-term estimates, we are not surprised by the -6.5% share price reaction today.
Highlights: QandA
. Revenue growth: pleased to see the development in sales in Q2 and esp. in Western Europe. This year is seeing a subdued consumer environment and the +4-6% is a through the cycle ambition. Expect Britvic to deliver in the range and contribute. The bridge to accelerate to the mid-term ambition is not driven by a single region.
. H2 EBIT growth acceleration: the slight acceleration in H2 is driven by slightly better volume performance (not a significant acceleration) with improvement in WE after good start to Q3, expect Vietnam and Laos to be less negative. India (monsoon) had a softer start to Q3. Also, Italy was impacted by flooding in H1.
. UK soft drinks: the sell-out data was good and looking into July it was also strong for Britvic.
. Kazakhstan: seeing a slightly different timeline on full operation of Kazakhstan to make sure we have the right state of the art production facilities so will use co-packers for a few months longer than originally expected. Important thing is to set up things correctly for the long-term. Part of the lower capex guide is Kazakhstan but also a bit of prudence on the rest of the business.
. H1 CEEI cost impacts: the EBIT development was impacted by Kazakhstan preparation...