Summary of Q2/H125 results Carlsberg Q2 organic sales growth at +0.6% was a -110bp miss vs. company consensus with both volumes (-1.1% vs. cons. -0.4%) and price / mix (+1.7% v. cons. +2.2%) contributing to growth below expectations. From a regional perspective, Asia was the driver of the Q2 top-line miss where LFL vols declined -3.5% (cons. flat) as volumes were flat in China and declined mid-teens in H1 in Vietnam. Group H1 organic EBIT grew +2.3% (co. cons. +1.8%) but included an est. +180bp benefit from gains on property disposals. H1 DKK EBIT (including the property gain) was a -160bp miss. H1 EPS (basic, adj.) at DKK30.4 was a c.+1% beat (driven by a combination of items below EBIT). Carlsberg narrowed its FY25 organic EBIT growth guidance to +3-5% (from +1-5%). News We highlight that Carlsberg expects a sequential acceleration in its organic EBIT growth in H2 to be supported by a slightly better volume performance. Earnings We revise our FY25e / FY26e / FY27e EPS by +1% / -2% / -1%. Investment thesis Given Carlsberg''s reliance on market-share driven growth in China, we see better value at Heineken and ABInBev. Rating and target price We maintain our Neutral rating; TP to DKK880 from DKK840; ADR USD26.2 from USD27. 15 questions for management There is a very large gap in recent retail sell-out trends between the carbonated soft drinks and beer categories in Western Europe (per Nielsen). What is driving the divergence in trends in your view?