BNPP Exane View Carlsberg has narrowed its FY25 organic EBIT outlook toward the upper end of the range (now +3-5%) and the updated finance cost outlook is a touch better. However, we do not think these modest positives will be enough to offset the negatives: Q2 vols are a -70bp miss driven by Asia where Carlsberg''s China vols were flat in Q2 and market share was only maintained in H1; and the Britvic profit contribution for FY25 has been maintained (we believe some expected a modest increase). Overall, while we are mindful that Carlsberg''s shares have been weak leading into today, we suspect the Asia driven vol miss will drive a further decline today. We call the shares down -3-5%. Q2/H125 headline metrics . Q2 LFL sales: +0.6% (implied co. cons: +1.7%; BBG cons. +1.9%) . Q2 LFL vol: -1.1% (implied co. cons: -0.4%; BBG cons. -0.2%) . Q2 price / mix: +1.7% (implied co. cons: +2.2%; BBG cons. +2.1%) . H1 LFL EBIT: +2.3% (co. cons: +1.8%; BBG cons. +2.3%) . H1 EBIT: DKK7,233m (-1.6% vs. co. cons; -1.4% vs. BBG cons.) . H1 EBIT margin: 15.8% (co. cons: 15.8%; BBG cons. 15.7%) . H1 EPS (basic, adj.): DKK30.4 (+1.0% vs. co. cons; +1.4% vs. BBG cons.) Top-line drivers Scanning the Q2 top-line drivers by region, we note that the -70bp Q2 organic volume miss was driven by Asia (vols in both Western Europe and CEEI were modestly ahead of consensus). Asia Q2 organic vols declined -3.5% with Carlsberg commenting on a flat Q2 development in China as the mainstream portfolio declined in H1 impacted by a weak consumer sentiment. Carlsberg maintained its China market share in H1. H1 volumes in Vietnam declined by mid-teens driven by intensified competition and a reorganisation of Carlsberg''s distribution network and outlet universe to ensure a resilient and high quality RtM for the future. Bottom-line drivers The -40bps YoY H1 EBIT margin contraction reflects GM -10bps, Marketing, selling and distribution -60bps, Admin -10bps, Other Op. Income (net) +20bps and...