What did we learn from the pre-close call? Renault confirmed guidance for a FY24 group operating margin 7.5% and FCF EUR2.5bn. A rise in dealer inventory should mean Q4 revenues are up sharply on strong wholesales. Product mix remained strong in Q4, but pricing remains a headwind. What do we expect for H2? We expect an H2 group margin of 7.3%, slightly below VA consensus at 7.5%. This would nonetheless leave FY24 group margins at 7.7%, thus meeting guidance for 7.5%. We also expect FCF of EUR2.7bn for FY24 to meet guidance. We are below consensus for net income however, reflecting both weaker expected Nissan income, as well as the likely absence of the Nissan write-down in some consensus estimates. We model a dividend of EUR2.56/sh for FY24, broadly in line with consensus. What do we expect for 2025 guidance? Emissions uncertainty may curb Renault''s enthusiasm for 2025, but we expect the group to aspire to a group margin of 8% in 2025 (cons. 7.3%), while noting risks due to the unfavourable regulatory environment. We expect a FCF guide similar to that of 2024, i.e. EUR2.5bn (cons. EUR3bn). Earnings changes with this note We have cut adj. EPS for ''24e on lower assumed Nissan income, but make no material underlying changes to core profitability, and our EUR66 TP remains unchanged. Our lower Nissan estimates reflect a switch to using consensus estimates rather than our own Nissan model given Nissan''s declining operational relevance to Renault as it continues to sell down its stake. This has no material impact on our FCF or valuation of Renault. Results Release: February 20th