What''s happening? Renault is set to report Q4 results on Thursday, February 20th, at 0600 UKT (0700 CET). A conference call will follow at 0700 UKT (0800 UKT). (Note Mercedes FY24 results and CMD due the same morning). Nissan reported its fiscal Q3 (calendar Q4) results this morning, which our estimates reflect.
BNPP Exane View: We are broadly in line with consensus for H2 operating profit, expecting a recurring group margin of 7.3%, vs company cons. At 7.4%. Within this both we and co. cons. Expect an auto margin of 5.7%. We are 42% below the street at the bottom line however, with this largely explained by the fact that the EUR1.1bn H2 write down of its Nissan stake does not appear to be widely reflected by consensus. We expect a dividend of c.EUR2.5, broadly in line with consensus (Renault has stated that the Nissan charge will not be included in computation of the dividend payout). We and consensus expect Renault to meet it FY FCF guide of EUR2.5bn.
For FY25 guidance, emissions uncertainty may curb Renault''s enthusiasm, but we expect the group to aspire to a group margin of 8% in 2025 (Co cons 7.4%), while noting risks due to the unfavourable regulatory environment. We expect a FCF guide similar to that of 2024, i.e. EUR 2.5bn (Co cons EUR 2.3bn). We do not expect Renault to add too much in terms of plans for its Nissan stake, other than that it continues to explore all possibilities to maximise the value of its shareholding and co-operation with Nissan.
Renault current FY24 outlook: Group operating margin of =7.5% (Co cons: 7.7%); Auto FCF = EUR 2.5bn (Co cons: EUR 2.6bn)
Nissan results: Nissan reported a fiscal Q3 operating margin of 1.0% this morning, slightly below consensus at 1.0%. The company also reduced its FY3/25 guide to OP of JPY120bn vs JPY150bn previously (cons. @ JPY130bn). The company has also terminated merger discussions with Honda (where strategic co-operation will instead be considered) and set out a restructuring...
