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  • 28 Oct 2024

Half-time report


Renault (RNO:EPA), 0 | Renault SA (RNO:PAR), 0 | Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG:ETR), 0 | Volvo Car AB Class B (VOLCAR.B:OME), 0 | Porsche AG (P911:ETR), 0

  • BNP Paribas Exane
    • Pearson Stuart SP | Jones William WJ

    • 30 pages


 

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Half-time report


Renault (RNO:EPA), 0 | Renault SA (RNO:PAR), 0 | Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG:ETR), 0 | Volvo Car AB Class B (VOLCAR.B:OME), 0 | Porsche AG (P911:ETR), 0

  • Published: 28 Oct 2024
  • Author: Pearson Stuart SP | Jones William WJ
  • Pages: 30
  • BNP Paribas Exane


At Q3''s half-time point our main take away is that premium demand looks to be weakening, while mass market price meltdown fears are soothed by reassuring Renault and GM commentary. Meanwhile supplier margin resilience offers some comfort in a Q4 where Lear and Valeo suggest production could see further disappointment. In this note we briefly update earnings for EU OEMs reporting thus far: Mercedes (-): Getting mixed up - ''24-25e EPS trimmed by 3% With Cars margins falling to just 4.7% in Q3, Mercedes is pinning hopes on a Q4 recovery underpinned by improving TEV (top-end) mix. This strategy disappointed in Q3 however, and we see FY margins in the lower half of the 7.5-8.5% range. Moreover, we see little reason for a strong margin recovery in FY25 versus H2 - we trim EPS by c.3% leaving us c.10-15% below consensus for ''25e. Porsche AG (=): Barely double-digit - ''24e EPS trimmed by 3% (''25e unchg.) A weak print was expected for supply and China to hit Porsche, but a Q3 margin of 10.7% still fell short of consensus, and was compounded by weak FCF. Easing supply issues should allow margins to recover in Q4 and into ''25e, but we expect ''25 margins below 16%, and c.10% below the street. Volvo Cars (-): Commendable cost control - ''24/25e EPS raised by 11% / 26% Volvo Cars'' cut to top line guidance was slightly surprising so soon after September''s CMD, and the company notes that premium demand is generally weak, notably in the US and China. Strong cost control however sees us increase our ''24e adj. EPS by +11%, and ''25e by +16%. We remain below consensus for ''25e however, where we continue to expect pricing pressure to weigh on margins. Renault (+): Product cycle kicking in - ''24/25e EPS raised by c.6% Renault''s product cycle looks to be kicking in, providing a degree of counter-cyclicality as product mix effects build. Management confidence on growth into 2025 provides further comfort, and we push up our ''24/25e adj. EPS by c.6% post Q3.

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