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01 Mar 2023
Higher rates already priced in

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Higher rates already priced in
- Published:
01 Mar 2023 -
Author:
De Cueto Moreno Gonzalo GD -
Pages:
8 -
Results very much in line with estimates
Q4 Revenues came at EUR419m (+3% vs consensus), while EBITDA came at EUR90m (-2.2% vs consensus). OandL REVPAR increased to EUR95 (vs EUR80 in 4Q19), driven by the strong rise in rates, which were c. 20% above 2019 levels. Occupancy data is less positive as it remains on average c. 10-13% below 2019 levels. Melia posted an EBITDA margin of 22% (vs 25% in Q4 19).
Net debt declined by EUR75m YoY, but leverage remains at c. 4.8x ND/EBITDA pre. IFRS
Net debt exc. IFRS declined by EUR75m YoY to EUR2.6bn thanks to the positive cash generation during FY22. Melia continues to see debt reduction as a top priority considering asset disposals, though it now envisages a minimum of 120m in proceeds (vs EUR250m prev.) as the JV partnership in the Caribbean seems not to be panning out as expected. Nonetheless, even if we included asset sales in our model, Melia''s leverage would continue to be relatively high. The ND/EBITDA ratio stood at 4.8x at the end of 2022.
FY23 Outlooks remains optimistic, but we have a more bearish view
S/t figures remain strong (+20-25% vs 2019 in 1Q 23), and occupancy is also closing the gap with 2019 levels across the portfolio driven by better corporate data. However, we remain concerned around margin sustainability, as we foresee important headwinds for FY23: 1) Higher labour cost from wage increases and employees per hotel catching up with 2019 levels; 2) Declines in direct sales through Melia.com; and 3) Pressure from continued inflation impacting supplies and higher leases and finance costs.
Figures updated: Valuation and recommendation unchanged
We fine-tune our FY23-25 estimates, raising our EBITDA by 4% on average, driven by higher revenues, though lowering our margins by 35bps on average given the headwinds that we mention. Melia currently trades at 9.9x FY23 EV/EBITDA, slightly above historical multiples and we see consensus estimates very demanding at EUR457m, which factors in a...