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15 May 2024
Highlights from our 4th Future of Packaging Conference
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Highlights from our 4th Future of Packaging Conference
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM:HEL), 0 | Stora Enso Oyj Class R (STERV:HEL), 0 | Huhtamaki Oyj (HUH1V:HEL), 0 | Mondi plc (MNDI:LON), 830 | SIG Group AG (SIGN:SWX), 0 | Elopak ASA (ELO:OSL), 0 | Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK:NYSE), 0 | Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK:NYS), 0
- Published:
15 May 2024 -
Author:
Muir-Sands Charlie CMS -
Pages:
7 -
BNPP Exane''s 4th Future of Packaging Conference: 14-15 May
We had the pleasure to welcome 12 companies spanning the entire value chain, from forest to packaging and everything in between, and key equipment suppliers earlier this week. We summarise our initial highlights from the last two days.
Hosting leaders from across the board
Participating companies this year were: Andritz, Elopak, Graphic Packaging, Holmen, Huhtamaki, Metsa Board, Mondi, SIG Group, Stora Enso, UPM, Valmet and Vidrala.
Demand and pricing improving in most areas
Contrasting a tough 2023, management near-universally cited improved order books, albeit in some areas driven by end of destocking effects, whilst end consumer-related evidence remains mixed. The main exception is timber due to continued muted construction activity, albeit even here sustainability trends are favourable with signs of increased use in substitution to concrete and steel. Pricing is also moving positively in most areas, albeit gains is recycled grades have largely already been eaten up in higher OCC prices. Near term, multiple supply-side shocks are particularly tightening the pulp market though some management were more wary into 2025 given new capacity coming to market.
Costs remain a challenge for Nordic producers
Downstream packaging companies are generally seeing a benign cost environment, following strong inflation in the last two years. Wood costs continue to rise significantly in the Nordics though with all impacted management teams believing the drivers to be structural and hence unlikely to improve. Reducing demand remains key but no one indicated plans to reduce installed capacity, albeit future additions are on hold or cancelled. Capital goods companies painted a mixed picture on demand for new projects, with main hopes here focused on Latin America.
Plenty of company specific detail
Andritz (=) remains more positive on pulp project demand than Valmet (+) albeit the latter is optimistic on...