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21 Apr 2021
I love it when a plan comes together (and 15 qs)
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I love it when a plan comes together (and 15 qs)
- Published:
21 Apr 2021 -
Author:
Gwynn Andrew AG -
Pages:
12 -
Carrefour''s turnaround seems finally to be coming together
Customer satisfaction and a request for patience seem to be the most common themes of our post results notes of late but not this time. Having seen a few periods of improving net promoter scores, Carrefour''s Q1 seems to have delivered the goods with better than expected trading plus a EUR500m share buyback. Whilst trading is no doubt COVID-19 boosted, market share gains in France encourage and having been frustrated with Carrefour''s capital allocation policy (MandA first) we are very pleased with the buyback. Where next? There''s more upside we think.
We still think many investors are waiting for more of a trend but we think it is coming
One of the frustrations of COVID-19 is that it makes the underlying performance difficult to decipher and when you carry the sort of baggage Carrefour''s equity story does, it means that improvements are easy to write off as temporary. Even market share can see support from format or geography bias (e.g. avoiding smaller stores or large cities) and so we need a trend. The data shared with the FY results however suggest quite a sharp improvement in customer perceptions and we think a change in culture at Carrefour. We''d wager there''s more good news to come.
Not everything is perfect; Italy catches the eye and Brazil wasn''t as strong as expected
Though there are clear improvements in France, few plans work seamlessly and once again, Italy catches the eye (-11% LFL) for the wrong reasons. Though it''s only 6% of sales and there was a drag from COVID, a fix seems remote for the loss making market. It''s a reminder of the need for a capital allocation policy that covers not only MandA and cash return but also, divestments.
Material upgrades to EPS as a result of EBIT hike plus the buyback
A EUR500m share buyback looks very supportable this year and we think, into the future even with acquisitions like Grupo BIG in Brazil so we include one for 2022 and 2023....