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08 Nov 2021
Infrastructure stimulus winner
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Infrastructure stimulus winner
- Published:
08 Nov 2021 -
Author:
Slowinski Stefan SS | Lu Louis LL -
Pages:
12 -
US Infrastructure Deal, another driver of sustained high demand for Nokia
Of the USD1.2TN infrastructure bill passed on Friday in the US, USD65bn will go to accelerating broadband investments, and we see Nokia as a key beneficiary, along with fiber and optical providers Ciena (NR) and Adtran (NR).
Nokia''s Fixed Networks business shining as fiber booms in a post COVID distributed world
Fixed Networks was a drag as legacy copper was in decline, but fiber and Fixed Wireless are now 90%+ of the Fixed Networks business. The business grew 29% in Q3 and is 11% of revenues at Nokia, with Moblie Networks still 43%. Nokia believes its 25G PON (Passive Optical Network) technology is 18 months ahead of competition, while being #1 in key fixed network technologies GPON and XGS(10G)-PON (40% share ex China), based on proprietary Nokia silicon. Significant opportunities for fiber coverage remain, especially in Europe (see p3). The EUR1.8TN European Recovery Plan, should allocate ~EUR140bn to ''Digital Transition'' including Broadband investments. While component shortages may impact sales near term, and the US and EU funds may not find their way into the market until 2023, stimulus should be a contributor to demand out through 2027. Nokia''s profitable IP Routing business (12% of sales) should also benefit.
Cash flow levels sustainable, and likely to grow. Equity undervalued. Outperform.
We believe bearish views that Nokia is set to see revenue declines, and a FCF collapse, to be unfounded. Mobile Access will be supported by ongoing strong 5G roll outs in the US, with builds at an early stage in Europe, Japan, India and Brazil. Share gains against Chinese vendors are increasingly likely. Standalone 5G networks are only now starting to be rolled out globally, which will also drive growth in Nokia''s Software business within Cloud and Network Services (CNS) as 5G Mobile Core deployments accelerate (Nokia has won 150+ deals). We see the LTM FCF of EUR2.5bn...