What happened?
Bimzelx trends remain robust (HS 20% of Rx with the value of a HS almost double that of a psoriasis patient), and point to EUR2bn sales in FY25, versus consensus EUR1.8bn, with risks to the upside in our view. Bimzelx 2036e peak sales EUR7bn versus consensus at EUR8bn (BBG Cons 2035e). We believe reference pricing pressure from Cosentyx biosimilars from 2029 needs to be considered, as well as the opportunity from further label expansion (e.g. paediatric indications and palmoplantar pustulosis, which itself represents a potentially addressable population 500k). We also flag encouraging EU IQVIA data, and continue to highlight the potential of galvokimig, based on recent feedback. See Thesis galvo-nised, KOL galvo call, and postcard from EADV. Consensus peak just EUR0.3bn; we are at EUR5bn risk adjusted.
BNPP Exane View:
Our PT is EUR235 with a bull-bear valuation range of EUR373-130. Our base case assumes revenues growth from EUR7bn in 2025e to EUR17bn in 2036e before returning to EUR11bn in 2040e. We assume cumulative RandD/capex through 2040 of EUR36/9bn. We also assume UCB goes net cash in the next 12-18 months and that the growing cash pile earns a meagre rate of return of just 2%. Accordingly, we argue out base case valuation is built on conservative assumptions, and we would urge investors to consider our bull case valuation of EUR373 to better asses the risk-reward at current levels.
Bimzelx''s stellar upward trajectory continues with weekly TRX 6k and YoY TRx/NRx growth of 355/294% respectively. Bimzelx holds an 8/9% TRx/NRx market share in psoriasis. We forecast peak Bimzelx sales of EUR7bn with psoriasis/HS making up 35/43%. IQVIA data summarised below. Separately we note Evenity dynamics worth flagging given the drug contributes 30% to UCB group profits, is growing 30%, but where consensus seems to ignore the growing EBITDA contribution.
Bimzelx Dynamics to consider
. Although NVS''s Cosentyx and ABBV''s Humira already have approval for HS, the...
