Ad Agency stocks have underperformed YTD (-8% rel. to MSCI) due to macro uncertainties, particularly in the US, and somewhat disappointing guidance (notably WPP). While Ad Agencies are today better equipped to navigate a macro downturn than a few years ago, a US recession would still have a negative impact. We have reduced our organic sales growth (OSG) estimates by c.50bps across the board to reflect slowing US momentum. In a bear scenario, we see on average c.5% downside to Cons EPS. This would still put the sector on an attractive 10x PE on average. We continue to favour Publicis (+), which has the most levers to pull in a challenging environment. We cut Ad Agencies OSG estimates by c.50bps to reflect a slowing macro in the US We''ve cut OSG estimates for top ad agencies by 50bps, now expecting +1.4% growth (vs +2.6% in 2024). This aligns with the mid-point of company guidance and consensus estimates. Historically, the top 4 agencies'' performance has correlated with global GDP growth, suggesting the +1.5% OSG expectation already implies lower global GDP growth at c.+1.9% (vs consensus +3.2%). We expect Q1 25 trend to be soft, with progressive recovery in subsequent quarters We model +0.6% OSG on average for the top 4 Ad Agencies in Q1 25 (vs +1.8% in Q4 24). Publicis should deliver a solid performance with +4.5% OSG, vs +3.7% for OMC (+2.4% on net basis). WPP''s and IPG''s org. net revenue should further decline (c.-3%), impacted by account loss. Publicis (+) remains our top pick; we also see attractive long-term benefits for OMC/IPG (+) Despite its relatively high exposure to the US market, we see Publicis as best positioned to navigate a potential economic downturn in ''25 due to strong support from new business wins, favourable business mix, differentiated go-to-market, unique connected ID and efficient organization. We are also positive on Omnicom and Interpublic (both +) as we expect attractive long-term benefits for the combined entity while...