More resilient economies The COVID lockdown measures in many CEE countries (and in Austria) have been less pervasive relative to Western Europe. Most CEE countries have adopted similar support initiatives as in WE (though somewhat less comprehensive in the Balkans and in Eastern Europe) and prevailing economic forecasts point to shallower recessions. Many other factors are in play (e.g., oil price developments for Russia, tourism season for Croatia, car manufacturing prospects for central Europe), but on the whole we do not foresee an above average deterioration of asset quality in the region. Erste and RBI''s cost of risk guidance for 2020 is in our view realistic (respectively 50-80bps and 75bps) and we see 2021 at similar levels. More resilient banks As European banks'' earnings visibility will likely remain low for several quarters we believe pre-provisioning profit margins and solvency levels will remain the most important drivers of investment decisions within the sector for a while. Erste and RBI score well on both fronts. Average pre-provisioning profit margins in 2020e-2022e stand at respectively 1.89% (ex savings banks), and 2.18% compared to a sector average of c.1.6%. Both banks should maintain FL CT1 ratios above 13% over the forecast period and we estimate average 2020-2022e ROTEs of c.7.5-8%. The removal of the bank levy in Slovakia from 2021 leads to an EPS upgrade For Erste we also reduce NII as we incorporate recent rate cuts and shift some provisions from 2021 to 2020. For RBI we also reduce FX fees due to prolonged travel restrictions (they represent c.20% of commissions). Prospective solvency is higher than previous estimates due to a partial reversal of Q1 20 currency depreciations in several countries. We favour RBI, but both banks offer safe haven status RBI''s discount vs the sector (and vs Erste) should narrow. With earnings uncertainty everywhere we believe the overexposure of RBI to Russia (+Ukraine/Belarus)...