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26 Feb 2021
Kicking the can down the road

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Kicking the can down the road
- Published:
26 Feb 2021 -
Author:
Ruiz Francisco FR -
Pages:
7 -
Weakness continues
Sales declined 44% in Q4, below the -37%/-32% estimated by consensus and Exane respectively. Reported EBIT margin reached 1.1%, below consensus'' 1.2%. The company reported an adjusted EBIT margin of 2.4% in Q4 (3.0% in FY20, which excludes restructuring charges and COVID related expenses, which was below the 3.7% estimated by us). However, the company recovered part of the net cash lost during the year due to positive working capital in Q4, reaching a net cash position of EUR197m, above our EUR167m and the EUR114m estimated by consensus.
Kicking the can down the road on guidance
The company reiterated the guidance communicated at 9M results. It expects Sales of EUR3.5bn, flat vs 2020, as a large proportion of the projects have been re-scheduled beyond 2021. In terms of order intake, it expects an above 1x book to bill, with several projects tendered already in H1 21 (with limited impact on 2021 sales). In terms of margin, the company mentioned an Adjusted EBIT margin of 3%, although more as an aspiration than guidance. In any case, the current environment will continue to add volatility to the business
We update our figures. TP unchanged
In line with what the company indicated, we postpone the majority of backlog execution to 2022. However, we make more conservative assumptions in terms of order intake (0.85 book to bill) and EBIT margin (2.7%e in 2021). We cut NP21 by 27% while leaving 2022 figures broadly unchanged. We maintain our TP at EUR15.5.
Outperform... but company needs to deliver
The positive evolution of crude oil in recent weeks will help to increase dynamism in the industry and could accelerate new projects. This, together with greater clarity on mid-term margins, should help to rebuild confidence among investors. We maintain our Outperform rating as we see great potential to improve, although we recognise that short-term visibility is reduced.