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01 Apr 2025
Le Pen verdict; positive for French infra stocks?
Vinci (DG:EPA), 0 | VINCI SA (DG:PAR), 0 | Eiffage (FGR:EPA), 0 | Eiffage SA (FGR:PAR), 0 | HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT:ETR), 0 | ACS Actividades de Constrccn y Srvcos (ACS:BME), 0 | ACS, Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA (ACS:MCE), 0 | Groupe Eurotunnel (GET:EPA), 0 | Getlink SE (GET:PAR), 0 | Aeroports de Paris (ADP:EPA), 0 | Aeroports de Paris (ADP:PAR), 0
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Le Pen verdict; positive for French infra stocks?
Vinci (DG:EPA), 0 | VINCI SA (DG:PAR), 0 | Eiffage (FGR:EPA), 0 | Eiffage SA (FGR:PAR), 0 | HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft (HOT:ETR), 0 | ACS Actividades de Constrccn y Srvcos (ACS:BME), 0 | ACS, Actividades de Construccion y Servicios SA (ACS:MCE), 0 | Groupe Eurotunnel (GET:EPA), 0 | Getlink SE (GET:PAR), 0 | Aeroports de Paris (ADP:EPA), 0 | Aeroports de Paris (ADP:PAR), 0
- Published:
01 Apr 2025 -
Author:
Maglione Dario DM -
Pages:
6 -
What happened?
The Paris criminal court has found Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN), - along with eight RN European deputies - guilty of embezzlement. As a result, Marine Le Pen faces immediate sanctions, including a five-year electoral ineligibility.
BNPP Exane View:
Our economists think that this news raises several uncertainties about France''s political landscape. The RN party could be tempted to destabilise the government even though there are reasons to believe it may not be in their best interests. Could this keep investors away from French stocks?
Potentially. However, in our view, this news may be positive for some French infrastructure stocks. Marine Le Pen has been vocal about the need to nationalise the French tollroads and was firmly against the privatisation of Paris airports. In contrast, Jordan Bardella, the President of RN and, possibly, the new front-runner of the party, has been less vocal on these subjects.
A reduction in the likelihood that Le Pen becoming the French president could lower the risks of political noise around French tollroads. As such, this new could be positive for Vinci, Eiffage and, to a less extent, ACS/ Hochtief, which have a stake in Abertis.
It might be tempting to think that this news increases the chances that Groupe ADP is privatised. However, we think the possibility of a privatisation remains tiny over the next couple of years.
Finally, this news should not have a significant impact on Getlink, which was not directly affected by discussion on nationalisation or toll cuts previously.