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28 Feb 2025
Leverage no longer an issue
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Leverage no longer an issue
- Published:
28 Feb 2025 -
Author:
De Cueto Moreno Gonzalo GD -
Pages:
10 -
Solid quarter with REVPAR growth of 7% YoY
Top-line is up 12.8% YoY, with sales at EUR512m, above consensus expectations (+4.5% above VA Consensus), driven by property sales and revenues from managed hotels. Owned and Leased REVPAR amounted to EUR78m in 4Q 23 (+7% YoY), mainly driven by higher average rates per room (+7% YoY), while occupancy remained flat YoY. EBITDA amounted to EUR105m excluding capital gains (+2% YoY and in line with consensus). Margins reached 20.5% in Q4 (-20bps YoY).
Net debt reduction above expectations
Net Debt stood at EUR2,236m (below the EUR2,243m expected by consensus), implying a decline of EUR83m vs Q3 24 mainly thanks to the operational cash flow generated during the quarter and the sale of two assets in Punta Cana (Paradisus Palma Real Golf and Spa and Zel Punta Cana) for c. USD60m.
Key takeaways from the call
1) REVPAR to grow mid-single digit in 2025. 2) Cash Flow generation to significantly improve YoY. 3) Repositioning opportunities exist, mainly in the Caribbean (Paradisus Cancun to represent bulk of growth Capex in 2025, maintenance Capex of c. EUR60-70m). 4) Net unit growth expected at about 4% YoY (c. 4k rooms).
Outperform reiterated; TP lifted to EUR9.5
We slightly raise our FY25-26 EPS on lower DandA and financing costs. Additionally, we raise our TP to EUR9.5/sh (from EUR9/sh) due to lower leverage levels than expected for FY24. We stick to our positive view on Melia: trading at a significant discount vs peers, the spread between its ROE implied and actual P/B has never been as wide and it offers an FCF yield of c. 10% on average over the next three years. Additionally, the updated property appraisal (up c.16% vs 2022 valuation) also supports our view that the shares are undervalued. Maintain Outperform.